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The OSRA model estimates the probability of oil spills in a specific lease area, calculates oil-spill trajectories from selected launch points, and estimates the probability that an environmental resource or coastline segment will be contacted by releases from the selected launch points. It provides the quantitative basis for calculating the probability of occurrence of an oil spill combined with the probability that a given spill will come into contact with resources. Physical oceanographic support of OSRA modeling has been provided directly through numerical modeling studies of the circulation of each of the major OCS regions—the outputs of the circulation models are "data" for OSRA models—and indirectly in the form of extensive data bases obtained through large-scale field observation programs.

During the winter season, the time series are most coherent at time scales longer than 2 days, the phases are very nearly zero, and the amplitudes are either underestimated or overestimated by as much as 30 percent. , 1987), which showed significant temporal and spatial structure to the wind field off northern California during the upwelling season. Their measurements showed . after the atmospheric spring transition the airflow in the marine layer is dominated by the North Pacific high, and the surface wind field over the shelf is characterized by periods of strong (7-15 m/s), upwelling-favorable alongshelf winds lasting for up to 30 days, interrupted by shorter periods of much weaker winds directed either equatorward or poleward.

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Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program : Physical Oceanography by Commission on Life Sciences Staff


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