By Leslie E. Grayson
ISBN-10: 0312870051
ISBN-13: 9780312870058
ISBN-10: 1349084123
ISBN-13: 9781349084128
ISBN-10: 134908414X
ISBN-13: 9781349084142
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Additional resources for Who and How in Planning for Large Companies: Generalizations from the Experiences of Oil Companies
Sample text
Because the impact of unpredictable factors is so great, future oil prices cannot be accurately predicted. A study involving 125 individuals who make and use oil-price forecasts at companies, banks, consulting firms, government agencies, and international organizations revealed, however, that many senior executives using forecasts fully understand neither how a forecast is 'built' nor, therefore, the full extent of the uncertainties inherent in a forecast. 13 One way of dealing with the uncertainties is to recognize their inherent nature and understand, via the scenario-planning approach, the forces that will shape the industry.
Kahn and A. J. Wiener, The Year 2000 (New York: Macmillan, 1967). Quotations in this paragraph come from this work. Also, H. Kahn and B. Bruce-Briggs, Things to Come: Thinking About the Seventies and Eighties (New York: Macmillan, 1972). 3. Paul Hawken, James Ogilvy, and Peter Schwartz, Seven Tomorrows (New York: Bantam Books, 1982). The section summarizes the book for purposes of this chapter; see especially pp. 22,29, 129-30, and 146--7. 4. Gene Stephens and William L. Tafoya, 'Crime and Justice', The Futurist, February 1985, pp.
Project outcomes for each business issue most appropriate to the scenarios in (4). In the final analysis, the crux of oil-industry planning, the elements that all scenarios are trying to predict, is the availability and the price of oil. 14,12 which represented the OPEC oil-market outlook, with special emphasis on crude-oil pricing, was an attempt to come to terms with these two elements. The impact of the OPEC outlook on crude-oil prices is presented, with the key in the diagram being the size of the OPEC Buffer-the 'Anxiety Zone'.
Who and How in Planning for Large Companies: Generalizations from the Experiences of Oil Companies by Leslie E. Grayson
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